04-04-20
Focus across chattering as well as working class is moving to post lock
down possibilities, once it ends on 15th April. The opinions range from pessimistic to wildly
optimistic. At the same time authorities are tampering the expectation about the
post lock down possibilities by giving very measured and nuanced statement.
While PM has asked the CMs to come up with their plan, they in turn have
provided only small glimpses on what’s on anvil. Trial balloons fly every day
and mostly shot down by day end. This is a good strategy, again showing that
our systems are working (strained but managing nicely). I expect a very limited
opening for trade and commerce to commence and find a rhythm to work within
limitation which Govt expects will continue for a longer time. If the initial loosening
of control works well, then we may have a distinct possibility for normalcy
over a quarter. On 15th, one will go out but how far one goes is to
be seen and yes it will be dictated by authorities.
As is out wont intense debate for and against rage on Diya/candle initiative
of PM, both sides are talking across each other (usual for both sides as they
stopped communicating long back), silent majority is doing what it does best: observe
and act as per their beliefs. I expect this to be a smashing success tomorrow
On an immediate note few things will possibly be DE rigor in our immediate behavior 1) We will be wearing mask in public places 2) And any one spitting
on road is bound to get a verbal lash from people around him/her. Yes, hope floats
that we will have no spitters on the roads soon.
Coming back to where I left yesterday on Post Covid world. While commentaries,
blogs and Tv pundits are raging teenagish hormones about life changing drastically,
in reality the next few months will just be spent examining the losses (classifying
permanent and temporary variety), fighting the recurring surge of virus and keeping
the powder dry for survival. The complex adaptive system that our civilization
and economy are will transit slowly into new paradigm of ideation &
execution. To say that it will change suddenly would be under appreciation of
post 1945(last major war) modern world. Exceptions
will be sudden vacuum situations which would get filled fast with alternative structures
and people.
Yes, as some people quoting Marx & Lenin point out, a lot can happen
in a week. However, that was then where nations could go to war every ten years
and fight long wars. The action has now shifted to the economy and how the cookie
crumbles (markets & banks) here for major players will decide who wins and losses.
Rightly our Central bank (RBI) has secured
the banks with cushion on multiple count and also has tried to ease the credit
available through the banks in market. The winners and losers will emerge from
this catharsis of credit reset, consumption slowdown and general aversion of risky endeavors.
One thing definitely we will see is more technology of intrusive type
dominating the lives of majority. Other things may or may not happen but if
till now technology was eating the world it will gobble up in a swift action. Some
of it is already happening and some will become clearer as we go ahead.
While data, hypothesis
and practices show us the way forward, most important is our ability to decipher
risk and act accordingly. My wish is that in the post Covid world (whenever it happens)
we are better than our current self.
Articles and tweets which
kept me engaged
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